2020年CFA一級考試距離你還有幾天呢？你備考到哪一階段了呢？今天小編給你出兩道考題，看看你能不能做下來呢？

1、Beth Knight, CFA, and David Royal, CFA, are independently analyzing the value of Bishop, Inc. stock. Bishop paid a dividend of $1 last year. Knight expects the dividend to grow by 10% in each of the next three years, after which it will grow at a constant rate of 4% per year. Royal also expects a temporary growth rate of 10% followed by a constant growth rate of 4%, but he expects the supernormal growth to last for only two years. Knight estimates that the required return on Bishop stock is 9%, but Royal believes the required return is 10%. Royal’s valuation of Bishop stock is approximately:

A. $5 less than Knight’s valuation

B. Equal to Knights valuation

C. $5 greater than Knights valuation

答案解析

Tim Smaby, VP, Advance Designations, Kaplan Professional:

正確答案：A.

其實在計算 share values 之前你就可以選出正確答案啦。Royal is using a shorter period of supernormal growth and a higher required rate of return on the stock. Both of these factors will contribute to a lower value using the multistage DDM.

Royal’s valuation is $5.10 less that Knight’s valuation.

2、John Gray, CFA and Sally Miller are discussing what they think their year-end bonus will be and how they might spend them. Miller is new to working in finance and asks Gray what people usually get and what he has got in the past. Gray explains that the firm prohibits employees from discussing their exact bonus number but also says that 30% of people get ‘good’ bonus’, 50% ‘average’ and 20% ‘low’. Gray says that he really wants a new smart watch recently released by a large tech company and says that he will definitely buy it if he gets a ‘good’ bonus, while there is only a 50% and 10% probability he will get it with an ‘average’ or ‘low’ bonus respectively.

Two weeks later, Miller sees Gray in the office and asks him if he got a good bonus. Gray reminds Miller that the firm’s policy means he cannot say, but Miller notices that he is wearing the new smart watch they were talking about. Miller goes back to her desk and calculates the probability that Gray got a ‘good’ bonus is closest to:

A: 30%

B: 53%

C: 57%

答案解析

Nicholas Blain, chief executive, Quartic Training:

正確答案：B.

“Using Bayes’ Formula : P(Event|Information) = P(Event) * P(Information |Event) / P(Information)

In this case, the event is getting a good bonus, and the information is that Gray has bought the new watch.

The probability that he got a good bonus and then bought the watch is given by:

P(Event)*P(Information |Event) = 0.3*1.00 = 0.30

The total probability that he would buy the watch is given by:

P(Information) = 0.3*1.00 + 0.5*0.50 + 0.2*0.10 = 0.57

Therefore, the probability that he got a good bonus is the proportion of probability that he got a good bonus and got the watch, to the total probability he got the watch:

P(Event|Information) = 0.30 / 0.57 = 0.53.”

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